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Brawn GP will almost certainly wrap up the Constructors’ Championship at the Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks’ time but the Drivers’ Championship is still a three horse race.

Jenson Button has a 14 point lead over team mate Rubens Barrichello and a 16 point lead over Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel.

There are 20 points available over the next two races, so it is still possible for Vettel to be crowned Champion but what will it take for Jenson to seal the Championship at Interlagos?

There are a few ways Button can clinch it:

1. He finishes third or better
2. He scores four points more than Barrichello
3. Vettel finishes lower than second and Barrichello finishes lower than fourth

As usual, Button remains positive:

We go to two circuits now which should suit our car so I’m excited about the end of the season and already looking forward to the next race in Brazil.

Of course if a track suits Jenson’s car it also suits Barrichello’s and the Brazilian will be on home territory fighting for probably his last shot at the Championship:

I’ve got to go there and win the race, that’s the aim. The rest, I don’t care about, and if I deserve to win the championship, I will.

It might be a long shot for him but Sebastian Vettel is not going to give up:

As I’ve said many times already, I will fight until the end, until the last breath.

The good news for fans is that all three drivers will really be fighting for the win in Brazil.  Barrichello and Vettel need it to keep their chances alive and Button can’t afford to lose many more points.

Image: Brawn GP

There was a chance both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships might have been decided at Suzuka.  Instead, after a dramatic qualifying session and a race dominated by Sebastian Vettel, we leave Japan with both titles still up for grabs.

Many expected Brawn GP to seal the Constructors’ Championship this weekend and they came very close to doing so.  While Red Bull are still in with a chance (mathematically), Brawn only need half a point to seal victory, something they are almost certain to do in Brazil.

The Drivers’ Championship is a lot less certain, though.

Sebastian Vettel was untouchable around the demanding Suzuka circuit, starting from pole position and leading from lights to flag.

What a race! We already had pole position and strategy-wise we were the favourites, but, you know – first of all you have to do the start! We were pretty confident that we could defend our position, as we’ve had good starts in the past, but it was closer than I thought it would be! Going into Turn 1, I suddenly saw a silver arrow on my left-hand side, but I had the inside line so it was my advantage. After that I put my head down and tried to push with every single lap.

Lewis Hamilton was on target to claim second until a problem with KERS saw him fall into the clutches of Toyota’s Jarno Trulli.

When we were behind the Safety Car, I asked the team if they could get the KERS working again so that I could shoot past Jarno but they couldn’t do it and I wasn’t close enough to get in his slipstream at the restart.

In a weekend marked by a string of shunts, rookie Jaime Alguersuari crashed spectacularly through a trackside sign to bring out the safety car on lap 43.  Rosberg pitted under the safety car and went on to finish 5th behind Kimi Raikkonen.

Barrichello and Button picked up the final two points-paying positions behind Nick Heidfeld.

Button now goes into Brazil 14 points ahead of Barrichello and 16 points ahead of Vettel.  In 2007 Kimi Raikkonen was 17 points behind Lewis Hamilton with two races to go and he ended up winning the Championship.

2009 Japanese Grand Prix Race Results

Image: Red Bull

The FIA now publishes the weights of each car after qualifying on Saturday. Those cars that make it through to the final qualifying session must use the fuel they qualified with while the rest of the field may refuel before the race.

Below is a graph showing the actual top ten qualifying times as well as those times adjusted for the weight of fuel each car is carrying. The graph assumes a standard lap time cost of 0.3 seconds per 10kg of fuel.

From these weights we can see that Adrian Sutil is running a little lighter than the other top 10 qualifiers and will have to make sure he has a good start to keep in front of Barrichello.

Everyone else seems to be roughly in position but Vettel’s blistering pace is clearly evident.  Jarno Trulli may be starting on the front row of the grid but unless Vettel makes a mistake it is unlikely Toyota will score their first win on Sunday.

2009 Japanese Grand Prix Car Weights

Image: Red Bull

This weekend Formula One returns to Suzuka for the first time since 2006.

One of the great circuits of the world, the unique figure-8 track is up there with Spa in the affections of both drivers and fans.

Lewis Hamilton dominated the high downforce Singapore Grand Prix last weekend but McLaren are unlikely to do as well at the higher speed Suzuka circuit.

This weekend will be Lewis Hamilton’s first experience of Suzuka.  He won at Fuji in 2007 but so far has only experienced Suzuka virtually:

It feels like I’ve been waiting my whole life to race at Suzuka – so, as you can imagine, I’ll be really excited when practice starts there on Friday morning. Ever since I was a kid, I’ve raced Suzuka on computer games – and while it kind of gives you an idea of how the circuit goes, nothing can beat the real thing.

Despite not having won a race since Turkey in June, Jenson Button still enjoys a 15 point lead over his nearest rival, team mate Rubens Barrichello.  There are now only three races left and in theory Button could seal the title in Japan but in the press conference on Thursday Jenson said he was only thinking of the race:

There are so many possibilities this weekend. There are still three people who can still challenge for the championship. I am one of them, and the most important thing for me to do is work as hard as I can on Friday and Saturday to get the car ready for qualifying and the race and have a good race, the same as all of these guys. I shouldn’t be thinking about anything else.

One possibility this weekend is rain.  So far it looks like it will be wet on Friday and Saturday but probably dry for the race.

To make your predictions in round 15 of the F1 Buzz prediction game (and be in with a chance to win some nice prizes), just leave a comment on this post with your driver predictions for the race in the following format:

Pole:
First:
Second:
Third:
Fastest lap:

Remember, the deadline for entries is start of qualifying on Saturday, that’s 05:00 GMT.

Good luck!

Image:  Toyota

Formula One has never been able to keep a secret and today the latest worst kept secret was finally confirmed: Fernando Alonso will drive for Ferrari.

Alonso’s contract is for three seasons starting 2010, partnering Fellipe Massa with Giancarlo Fisichella as reserve driver.

There has long been speculation that Kimi Raikkonen would make way for Alonso next year (a year before his contract was up) but Felipe Massa’s accident and then the Renault race fixing investigation held up the announcement which was expected at Monza.

Like one of those sliding puzzles, Alonso’s move to Ferrari now frees up a space at Renault and the game of musical chairs can begin.  Where will everyone be sitting when the music stops and who will be left standing?

McLaren say nothing has been decided yet but there are rumours that Kimi may return to the Silver Arrows in place of fellow Finn Kovalainen (and that Spanish bank Santander will pay Kimi’s 2010 Ferrari salary.)

Robert Kubica has been tipped to take over Alonso’s seat at Renault while Nico Rosberg could switch places with Rubens Barrichello at Brawn.

While Adrian Sutil will probably stay at Force India, Tonio Liuzzi may be under pressure from Nick Heidfeld to keep his seat there.

The good news for those drivers worried about losing their seats is that there will (hopefully) be at least three new teams on the grid next year.  None of them have announced their driver lineup yet but McLaren test driver Pedro de la Rosa  has been linked with Campos while Manor or Lotus could provide a way back in to F1 for BBC commentator Anthony Davidson.  I actually think Davidson is a really good commentator but I also think his Formula One career was prematurely interrupted just as it seemed to be getting off the ground.

Somewhat surprisingly we may even see Nelson Piquet Jr return in 2010.  Manor team boss, John Booth, could offer the Brazilian a drive in 2010.  He was quoted by the Telegraph as saying (without a hint of irony):

I’ve not spoken to him at the moment, but he’s a smashing little driver. I’ve no personal problems with him, but it is unclear what his current position is with regards sponsorship

Ferrari press release